Blackjack Apprenticeship Deviations
2021年4月20日Register here: http://gg.gg/p3y86
Covers all the basics that you need to be a successful card counter - from rules of blackjack to deviations. Videos are concise and don’t drag on. I had been using free resources for a couple months and only a handful of videos taught me something I didn’t already know. The only application you need to master both Basic Strategy and Card Counting. Blackjack All-In-One Trainer has 3 modes; Play, Train and Simulate. Reduce the advantage the casinos have over you by learning and practicing Basic Strategy. Beat the house and shift the odds in your favor by learning and practicing Card Counting. Understand the statistics and see the results of millions of hands of. I was wondering if there is some way I could find, or someone could show me where a full list of indexes are for Hi Lo with 6 decks, H17, DAS, no surrender, and peek. If possible having them listed in importance would be helpful as well.
*Blackjack Apprenticeship Deviations
*Blackjack Apprenticeship Deviations Chart
*Blackjack Apprenticeship Playing Deviations
*Appendices
*Miscellaneous
*External LinksIntroduction
This appendix presents information pertinent to the standard deviation in blackjack. It assumes the player is following basic strategy in a cut card game. Each table is the product of a separate simulation of about ten billion hands played. As a reminder, the total variance playing x hands at once is the variance plus covariance × (x-1).
The following table is the product of many simulations and a lot of programming work. It shows the variance and covariance for various sets of rules.Summary TableDecksSoft 17Double
After
SplitSurrender
AllowedRe-split
Aces
AllowedExpected
ValueVarianceCovariance6StandYesYesYes-0.002811.3030.4796StandNoNoNo-0.005731.2950.4786HitYesYesYes-0.004731.3120.4876HitNoNoNo-0.007871.3080.4886HitYesNoNo-0.006281.3460.4996HitNoYesNo-0.006991.2720.4756HitNoNoYes-0.007171.3110.4888HitNoNoNo-0.008121.3090.4892HitYesNoNo-0.003981.3410.495
By way of comparison, Stanford Wong, in his book Professional Blackjack (page 203) says the variance is 1.28 and the covariance 0.47 for his Benchmark Rules, which are six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, no double after split, no re-splitting aces, no surrender. The second row of my table shows that for the same rules I get 1.295 and 0.478 respectively, which is close enough for me.Effect on Variance of Rule Changes
The next table shows the effect on the expected value, variance and covariance of various rule changes compared to the Wong Benchmark Rules.Blackjack Apprenticeship DeviationsEffect of Rule VariationRuleExpected
ValueVarianceCovarianceStand on soft 170.00191-0.00838-0.00764Double after split allowed0.001590.037530.01091Surrender allowed0.00088-0.03629-0.01247Re-split aces allowed0.000700.002070.00037Eight decks-0.000250.000710.00063Two decks0.00230-0.00530-0.00422
What follows are tables showing the probability of the net win for one to three hands under the Liberal Strip Rules, defined above.Liberal Strip Rules — Playing One Hand at a Time
The first table shows the probability of each net outcome playing a single hand under what I call ’liberal strip rules,’ which are as follows:
*Six decks
*Dealer stands on soft 17 (S17)
*Double on any first two cards (DA2)
*Double after split allowed (DAS)
*Late surrender allowed (LS)
*Re-split aces allowed (RSA)
*Player may re-split up to three times (P3X)6 Decks S17 DA2 DAS LS RSA P3X — One HandBlackjack Apprenticeship Deviations ChartNet winProbabilityReturn-80.00000019-0.00000154-70.00000235-0.00001643-60.00001785-0.00010709-50.00008947-0.00044736-40.00048248-0.00192993-30.00207909-0.00623728-20.04180923-0.08361847-10.40171191-0.40171191-0.50.04470705-0.0223535300.084832900.0000000010.316979090.316979091.50.045296320.0679444820.058442990.1168859830.002596450.0077893540.000763230.0030529250.000144910.0007245360.000037740.0002264670.000006090.0000426380.000000660.00000526Total1.00000000-0.00277282
The table above reflects the following:
*House edge = 0.28%
*Variance = 1.303
*Standard deviation = 1.142Probability of Net Win
I’m frequently asked about the probability of a net win in blackjack. The following table answers that question.Summarized Net Win in Blackjack
The next three tables break down the possible events by whether the first action was to hit, stand, or surrender; double; or split.Net Win when Hitting, Standing, or Surrendering First ActionEventTotalProbabilityReturn1.5771474730.051447680.0771715215374106360.358385440.3583854401275973980.085091450-0.5761636230.05079158-0.02539579-16812134410.45428386-0.45428386Total14995325711-0.04412269Net Win when Doubling First ActionEventTotalProbabilityReturn2894636030.549802651.099605290113012740.069452490-2619546070.38074486-0.76148972Total16271948410.33811558Net Win when Splitting First ActionEventTotalProbabilityReturn810790.000025540.000204287104400.000247070.001729486640990.001516940.0091016652476380.005860510.02930255413077190.0309480.123792344373650.105013060.315039172102225780.241923790.48384758128224580.066795260.06679526056216750.13304050-135202090.08330798-0.08330798-294253930.2230579-0.4461158-335592020.08423077-0.25269231-48280100.01959538-0.07838153-51526870.00361343-0.01806717-6305360.00072265-0.00433592-739720.000094-0.000658-83050.00000722-0.00005774Total4225536510.14619552Liberal Strip Rules — Playing Two Hands at a Time
The following table shows the net result playing two hands at a time under the Liberal Strip Rules, explained above. The Return column shows the net win between the two hands.6 Decks S17 DA2 DAS LS RSA P3X — Two HandsNet winProbabilityReturn-140.000000000.00000000-130.00000000-0.00000001-120.00000001-0.00000006-110.00000003-0.00000035-100.00000023-0.00000228-90.00000163-0.00001464-80.00001040-0.00008324-7.50.00000000-0.00000003-70.00005327-0.00037288-6.50.00000009-0.00000061-60.00024527-0.00147159-5.50.00000114-0.00000629-50.00106847-0.00534234-4.50.00000967-0.00004352-40.00654661-0.02618644-3.50.00005733-0.00020065-30.04607814-0.13823442-2.50.00214887-0.00537218-20.23285866-0.46571732-1.50.03547663-0.05321495-10.09903321-0.09903321-0.50.01386072-0.0069303600.146775040.000000000.50.058882900.0294414510.060262380.060262381.50.010305630.0154584520.172500850.345001702.50.030201860.0755046530.064432040.193296123.50.005598500.0195947440.010724010.042896044.50.000249270.0011217150.001871390.009356955.50.000073410.0004037360.000494050.002964286.50.000014140.0000919370.000124040.000868257.50.000003690.0000276780.000029330.000234668.50.000000600.0000050890.000005430.000048889.50.000000070.00000063100.000000830.00000834110.000000130.00000141120.000000020.00000028130.000000000.00000005140.000000000.00000001Total1.00000000-0.00563798
The table above reflects the following:
*House edge = 0.28%
*Variance per round = 3.565
*Variance per hand = 1.782
*Standard deviation per hand= 1.335Liberal Strip Rules — Playing Three Hands at a Time
The following table shows the net result playing three hands at a time under the Liberal Strip Rules, explained above. The Return column shows the net win between the three hands.6 Decks S17 DA2 DAS LS RSA P3X — Three HandsNet winProbabilityReturn-160.00000000-0.00000001-150.00000000-0.00000001-140.00000001-0.00000007-130.00000003-0.00000041-120.00000018-0.00000218-110.00000100-0.00001099-10.50.000000000.00000000-100.00000531-0.00005309-9.50.00000001-0.00000006-90.00002581-0.00023228-8.50.00000005-0.00000047-80.00011292-0.00090339-7.50.00000049-0.00000370-70.00046097-0.00322680-6.50.00000397-0.00002581-60.00197390-0.01184341-5.50.00002622-0.00014419-50.00969361-0.04846807-4.50.00022638-0.00101870-40.04183392-0.16733566-3.50.00319799-0.01119297-30.15826947-0.47480842-2.50.02641456-0.06603640-20.08893658-0.17787317-1.50.02183548-0.03275322-10.09681697-0.09681697-0.50.04992545-0.0249627300.067120760.000000000.50.021111450.0105557210.089782720.089782721.50.037899430.0568491420.043495920.086991832.50.011234470.0280861830.108135040.324405113.50.024890930.0871182540.061967360.247869434.50.009066130.0407975950.018054090.090270445.50.001542690.0084848060.004093230.024559406.50.000270590.0017588570.001073150.007512037.50.000072080.0005406280.000301050.002408408.50.000018240.0001550590.000080140.000721269.50.000004310.00004096100.000019010.0001901010.50.000000810.00000846110.000003980.0000437911.50.000000130.00000144120.000000780.0000093912.50.000000020.00000023130.000000160.0000021413.50.000000010.00000008140.000000030.0000004514.50.000000000.00000001150.000000010.0000000915.50.000000000.00000000160.000000000.00000002170.000000000.00000001Total1.00000000-0.00854917
The table above reflects the following:
*House edge = 0.285%
*Variance per round = 6.785
*Variance per hand = 2.262
*Standard deviation per hand= 1.504Internal Links
Written by: Michael Shacklefordon
Card counting is one of the most famous advantage-play methods in gambling. In fact, a number of Hollywood movies include card counting scenes or are based entirely on this technique.
Skilled counters can gain anywhere from a 0.5% to 1.5% edge over the house, which leads to good profits over time.
Given card counting’s fame, the mainstream population and even many blackjack players themselves think that this is the only way to gain an edge.
But the truth is that you don’t have to count cards to beat blackjack. Instead, you can use one of several other advantage-play techniques to win.
I’m going to discuss how hole carding, shuffle tracking, ace sequencing, and edge sorting can help you beat the game. I’ll also discuss if any of these advantage-play methods are better than card counting.Hole Carding
Blackjack dealers at North American casinos deal themselves one face-up and one face-down card. The face-down card is referred to as the hole card because it’s not visible to players.
The dealer is the only person at the table who sees the hole card, because they check for a natural blackjack before players act.
Given that you don’t see the hole card, you’re basing blackjack decisions on incomplete information.
Basic strategy helps you narrow the gap between the house and yourself. But you’re still at a slight disadvantage when using perfect basic strategy.
Enter hole carding: an advantage-play technique that involves spotting the dealer’s hole card. If you see their hole card, you can gain up to a 13% advantage.
Any dealer who consistently offers players a chance to see this is called a “flasher.” These dealers, through one mistake or another, allow players to gain a big advantage by flashing their hole card.
The best way to spot these dealer flaws is by sitting in the right seat and paying close attention to every hand.
Most players don’t pay attention to when the dealer peeks for blackjack or deals themselves the hole card. But by doing so, this gives you a tremendous advantage at a flasher’s table.
Spotting the dealer’s face-down card when they peek for a blackjack is called “first-basing” or “third-basing.” Spotting the hole card when it’s slid under the up-card is called “front loading.”
Many hole-carders sit at first base, which is the first seat to the dealer’s left. This gives you the best chance at seeing a right-handed dealer’s hole card.
The other popular hole-carding seat is third base, which is to the dealer’s immediate right. This is the best spot to see a left-handed dealer’s face-down card.
It also helps if you can gain a vantage point closer to the table felt. The more level your eyes are with the table, the better chance you have of seeing the hole card.
Shorter players have an advantage in this regard because they’re naturally closer to the table felt. Taller players often lean back to improve their vantage point.
Of course, the key is to do so in a subtle manner. Being obvious about leaning back or slouching draws attention to your hole-carding efforts.
Another thing that you need to be careful of is over-using your advantage. Sometimes you should ignore the info you gain when using basic strategy because some plays look too suspicious.
Here’s an example.
*Your first two cards total a hard 8
*The dealer’s up-card is a 10
*You see that the dealer’s hole card is 2
*The optimal play is to double down against the dealer’s 12
*But no regular player is going to make this decision because they’re not supposed to have this info
The last thing that you want to do is continue taking advantage of plays like this, especially when your dealer is a consistent flasher.
If the casino finds out that a dealer is consistently flashing cards and helping a player(s) win, one of two things will happen.
*1. The dealer will receive better training
*2. The dealer will be fired if flashing becomes a consistent problem
In either case, the work you put into finding a flasher goes out the window. And this is hardly worth taking advantage of a few suspicious plays that you should let go.
Players need to think long term and realize what kind of profits they can make by continuing to play at the dealer’s table. Avoid decisions that are too far outside the bounds of regular strategy.
It’s hard to find a consistent flasher. Casinos train dealers on how to deal without giving players a chance to see their hole card.
Nevertheless, some dealers either don’t pick up enough skills in training or become lackadaisical over time.
The best place to start when looking for flashers is casino-heavy cities like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, and Reno. This enables you to bounce from casino to casino within a single shift.
Odds are that you’re not going to find a flasher within your first few hunts. But once you do find one, note what shift they work and make it a priority to play at their table.Shuffle Tracking
In the 1960s and ‘70s, Las Vegas casinos began implementing shoe games. The idea was to hinder card counters by forcing them to count through multiple decks in each shoe.
Casinos thought that they solved their card counting problem with shoe blackjack tables. But card counters merely adjusted their strategy, and other techniques such as shuffle tracking were born as well.
Shuffle tracking refers to tracking specific cards, or a sequence of cards, through multiple shuffles. Shuffle trackers monitor where 10s and face cards (a.k.a. high cards) are throughout the coming rounds.
Much like card counting, the goal is to bet more when the shoe is abundant in high cards. When used properly, shuffle tracking is much more effective than counting.Blackjack Apprenticeship Playing Deviations
But this technique is also very difficult to use, because you must know an advanced strategy on top of card counting.
The basic idea behind shuffle tracking is that shuffles aren’t random, and you can track certain cards after a shuffle.
You might think, “Can’t dealers just shuffle more to make decks more random and stop shuffle trackers?” But many casinos don’t like their dealers wasting too much time with shuffles, because this slows the game and lowers profits.
Blackjack dealers commonly use a “zero shuffle,” where cards are separated into piles, with the shuffling only being done between the piles (i.e., the dealer grabs two piles and riffles them). This means that the ace of hearts, for example, would have a high chance of only being in one or two sections of the shuffled shoe.
Card counting comes in because you want keep track of the count in different discard sections. I’ll start this explanation by looking at the point values assigned in the Hi-Lo counting method.
*2 through 6 = +1
*7 through 9 = 0
*10 through ace = -1
You can use other card counting systems with shuffle tracking. But the Hi-Lo is a popular counting strategy that’s easy to use.
As you may know, high cards favor the player by improving their chances of getting a natural blackjack payout. This advantage comes from the fact that players get either a 3:2 or 6:5 bonus with a natural.
Meanwhile, low cards reduce the dealer’s chance of busting out while they try to reach a hard 17. Anything that increases the dealer’s odds of winning is bad for players.
The premise is to make higher bets when the shoe is rich in aces and 10-value cards (i.e., positive count) and bet the table minimum when the shoe contains more low cards (i.e., negative count).
The overall positive or negative count is referred to as a “running count.” But Hi-Lo system users convert this into a “true count,” which accounts for the number of unplayed decks in the shoe.
Here’s an example:
*Your running count is +8
*There are 4 decks remaining
*8/4 = +2 true count
Card counting and shuffle tracking come together when players have a good idea of what card values are left in the shoe based on their count. If they can take this a step further by visually tracking high cards and finding them bunched together, they gain an even greater advantage.
One big benefit of shuffle tracking is that it’s harder to spot than card counting.
Sure, you’re still increasing bets during favorable situations. But your increased bets come in a shorter span once 10-value cards and aces emerge in clumps.
Another advantage is that you can gain up to a 50% advantage with perfect shuffle tracking.
No player will have this edge all of the time. But an expert shuffle tracker may gain between a 10% and 30% long-term edge, depending upon the dealer and shuffling style they’re using.
The downside is that shuffle tracking is extremely difficult to pull off. You not only need to keep a good count, but also follow the deck with your eyes and understand how high cards will disperse after shuffles.
Be prepared to practice for quite some time in order to become an expert shuffle tracker. Even then, you need to be good enough to pull this off with a high degree of certainty.
In other words, some players fool themselves into thinking that they’re gaining an edge, when they’re really not doing anything special.
Another drawback is that not every casino trains their blackjack dealers in a shuffle that can be exploited. Some casinos use a 2-pass shuffle, where they go through two rounds of riffling and restacking.
2-pass shuffles make it harder to track cards during a shuffle. Ideally, you want a one-pass shuffle to cut down on the randomness of the shoe.
One more point worth making is that you can’t shuffle track with a continuous shuffling machine (CSM). That said, look for hand-shuffled shoes with one-pass shuffles.Ace Sequencing
Ace sequencing is a different type of card tracking, where you try to remember what cards are on top of the ace in the discard pile. You then make larger bets when you see these cards come out in hopes of being dealt an ace.
Like shuffle tracking, ace sequencing is a difficult pursuit. The best ace trackers can remember up to a dozen card sequences in each shoe, thus greatly improving their chances of catching aces.
If you know that you’re likely to be dealt an ace, you can gain up to a 50% advantage on the house. When you’re dealt an ace, you have a 31% chance of getting a 10-value card
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
Covers all the basics that you need to be a successful card counter - from rules of blackjack to deviations. Videos are concise and don’t drag on. I had been using free resources for a couple months and only a handful of videos taught me something I didn’t already know. The only application you need to master both Basic Strategy and Card Counting. Blackjack All-In-One Trainer has 3 modes; Play, Train and Simulate. Reduce the advantage the casinos have over you by learning and practicing Basic Strategy. Beat the house and shift the odds in your favor by learning and practicing Card Counting. Understand the statistics and see the results of millions of hands of. I was wondering if there is some way I could find, or someone could show me where a full list of indexes are for Hi Lo with 6 decks, H17, DAS, no surrender, and peek. If possible having them listed in importance would be helpful as well.
*Blackjack Apprenticeship Deviations
*Blackjack Apprenticeship Deviations Chart
*Blackjack Apprenticeship Playing Deviations
*Appendices
*Miscellaneous
*External LinksIntroduction
This appendix presents information pertinent to the standard deviation in blackjack. It assumes the player is following basic strategy in a cut card game. Each table is the product of a separate simulation of about ten billion hands played. As a reminder, the total variance playing x hands at once is the variance plus covariance × (x-1).
The following table is the product of many simulations and a lot of programming work. It shows the variance and covariance for various sets of rules.Summary TableDecksSoft 17Double
After
SplitSurrender
AllowedRe-split
Aces
AllowedExpected
ValueVarianceCovariance6StandYesYesYes-0.002811.3030.4796StandNoNoNo-0.005731.2950.4786HitYesYesYes-0.004731.3120.4876HitNoNoNo-0.007871.3080.4886HitYesNoNo-0.006281.3460.4996HitNoYesNo-0.006991.2720.4756HitNoNoYes-0.007171.3110.4888HitNoNoNo-0.008121.3090.4892HitYesNoNo-0.003981.3410.495
By way of comparison, Stanford Wong, in his book Professional Blackjack (page 203) says the variance is 1.28 and the covariance 0.47 for his Benchmark Rules, which are six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, no double after split, no re-splitting aces, no surrender. The second row of my table shows that for the same rules I get 1.295 and 0.478 respectively, which is close enough for me.Effect on Variance of Rule Changes
The next table shows the effect on the expected value, variance and covariance of various rule changes compared to the Wong Benchmark Rules.Blackjack Apprenticeship DeviationsEffect of Rule VariationRuleExpected
ValueVarianceCovarianceStand on soft 170.00191-0.00838-0.00764Double after split allowed0.001590.037530.01091Surrender allowed0.00088-0.03629-0.01247Re-split aces allowed0.000700.002070.00037Eight decks-0.000250.000710.00063Two decks0.00230-0.00530-0.00422
What follows are tables showing the probability of the net win for one to three hands under the Liberal Strip Rules, defined above.Liberal Strip Rules — Playing One Hand at a Time
The first table shows the probability of each net outcome playing a single hand under what I call ’liberal strip rules,’ which are as follows:
*Six decks
*Dealer stands on soft 17 (S17)
*Double on any first two cards (DA2)
*Double after split allowed (DAS)
*Late surrender allowed (LS)
*Re-split aces allowed (RSA)
*Player may re-split up to three times (P3X)6 Decks S17 DA2 DAS LS RSA P3X — One HandBlackjack Apprenticeship Deviations ChartNet winProbabilityReturn-80.00000019-0.00000154-70.00000235-0.00001643-60.00001785-0.00010709-50.00008947-0.00044736-40.00048248-0.00192993-30.00207909-0.00623728-20.04180923-0.08361847-10.40171191-0.40171191-0.50.04470705-0.0223535300.084832900.0000000010.316979090.316979091.50.045296320.0679444820.058442990.1168859830.002596450.0077893540.000763230.0030529250.000144910.0007245360.000037740.0002264670.000006090.0000426380.000000660.00000526Total1.00000000-0.00277282
The table above reflects the following:
*House edge = 0.28%
*Variance = 1.303
*Standard deviation = 1.142Probability of Net Win
I’m frequently asked about the probability of a net win in blackjack. The following table answers that question.Summarized Net Win in Blackjack
The next three tables break down the possible events by whether the first action was to hit, stand, or surrender; double; or split.Net Win when Hitting, Standing, or Surrendering First ActionEventTotalProbabilityReturn1.5771474730.051447680.0771715215374106360.358385440.3583854401275973980.085091450-0.5761636230.05079158-0.02539579-16812134410.45428386-0.45428386Total14995325711-0.04412269Net Win when Doubling First ActionEventTotalProbabilityReturn2894636030.549802651.099605290113012740.069452490-2619546070.38074486-0.76148972Total16271948410.33811558Net Win when Splitting First ActionEventTotalProbabilityReturn810790.000025540.000204287104400.000247070.001729486640990.001516940.0091016652476380.005860510.02930255413077190.0309480.123792344373650.105013060.315039172102225780.241923790.48384758128224580.066795260.06679526056216750.13304050-135202090.08330798-0.08330798-294253930.2230579-0.4461158-335592020.08423077-0.25269231-48280100.01959538-0.07838153-51526870.00361343-0.01806717-6305360.00072265-0.00433592-739720.000094-0.000658-83050.00000722-0.00005774Total4225536510.14619552Liberal Strip Rules — Playing Two Hands at a Time
The following table shows the net result playing two hands at a time under the Liberal Strip Rules, explained above. The Return column shows the net win between the two hands.6 Decks S17 DA2 DAS LS RSA P3X — Two HandsNet winProbabilityReturn-140.000000000.00000000-130.00000000-0.00000001-120.00000001-0.00000006-110.00000003-0.00000035-100.00000023-0.00000228-90.00000163-0.00001464-80.00001040-0.00008324-7.50.00000000-0.00000003-70.00005327-0.00037288-6.50.00000009-0.00000061-60.00024527-0.00147159-5.50.00000114-0.00000629-50.00106847-0.00534234-4.50.00000967-0.00004352-40.00654661-0.02618644-3.50.00005733-0.00020065-30.04607814-0.13823442-2.50.00214887-0.00537218-20.23285866-0.46571732-1.50.03547663-0.05321495-10.09903321-0.09903321-0.50.01386072-0.0069303600.146775040.000000000.50.058882900.0294414510.060262380.060262381.50.010305630.0154584520.172500850.345001702.50.030201860.0755046530.064432040.193296123.50.005598500.0195947440.010724010.042896044.50.000249270.0011217150.001871390.009356955.50.000073410.0004037360.000494050.002964286.50.000014140.0000919370.000124040.000868257.50.000003690.0000276780.000029330.000234668.50.000000600.0000050890.000005430.000048889.50.000000070.00000063100.000000830.00000834110.000000130.00000141120.000000020.00000028130.000000000.00000005140.000000000.00000001Total1.00000000-0.00563798
The table above reflects the following:
*House edge = 0.28%
*Variance per round = 3.565
*Variance per hand = 1.782
*Standard deviation per hand= 1.335Liberal Strip Rules — Playing Three Hands at a Time
The following table shows the net result playing three hands at a time under the Liberal Strip Rules, explained above. The Return column shows the net win between the three hands.6 Decks S17 DA2 DAS LS RSA P3X — Three HandsNet winProbabilityReturn-160.00000000-0.00000001-150.00000000-0.00000001-140.00000001-0.00000007-130.00000003-0.00000041-120.00000018-0.00000218-110.00000100-0.00001099-10.50.000000000.00000000-100.00000531-0.00005309-9.50.00000001-0.00000006-90.00002581-0.00023228-8.50.00000005-0.00000047-80.00011292-0.00090339-7.50.00000049-0.00000370-70.00046097-0.00322680-6.50.00000397-0.00002581-60.00197390-0.01184341-5.50.00002622-0.00014419-50.00969361-0.04846807-4.50.00022638-0.00101870-40.04183392-0.16733566-3.50.00319799-0.01119297-30.15826947-0.47480842-2.50.02641456-0.06603640-20.08893658-0.17787317-1.50.02183548-0.03275322-10.09681697-0.09681697-0.50.04992545-0.0249627300.067120760.000000000.50.021111450.0105557210.089782720.089782721.50.037899430.0568491420.043495920.086991832.50.011234470.0280861830.108135040.324405113.50.024890930.0871182540.061967360.247869434.50.009066130.0407975950.018054090.090270445.50.001542690.0084848060.004093230.024559406.50.000270590.0017588570.001073150.007512037.50.000072080.0005406280.000301050.002408408.50.000018240.0001550590.000080140.000721269.50.000004310.00004096100.000019010.0001901010.50.000000810.00000846110.000003980.0000437911.50.000000130.00000144120.000000780.0000093912.50.000000020.00000023130.000000160.0000021413.50.000000010.00000008140.000000030.0000004514.50.000000000.00000001150.000000010.0000000915.50.000000000.00000000160.000000000.00000002170.000000000.00000001Total1.00000000-0.00854917
The table above reflects the following:
*House edge = 0.285%
*Variance per round = 6.785
*Variance per hand = 2.262
*Standard deviation per hand= 1.504Internal Links
Written by: Michael Shacklefordon
Card counting is one of the most famous advantage-play methods in gambling. In fact, a number of Hollywood movies include card counting scenes or are based entirely on this technique.
Skilled counters can gain anywhere from a 0.5% to 1.5% edge over the house, which leads to good profits over time.
Given card counting’s fame, the mainstream population and even many blackjack players themselves think that this is the only way to gain an edge.
But the truth is that you don’t have to count cards to beat blackjack. Instead, you can use one of several other advantage-play techniques to win.
I’m going to discuss how hole carding, shuffle tracking, ace sequencing, and edge sorting can help you beat the game. I’ll also discuss if any of these advantage-play methods are better than card counting.Hole Carding
Blackjack dealers at North American casinos deal themselves one face-up and one face-down card. The face-down card is referred to as the hole card because it’s not visible to players.
The dealer is the only person at the table who sees the hole card, because they check for a natural blackjack before players act.
Given that you don’t see the hole card, you’re basing blackjack decisions on incomplete information.
Basic strategy helps you narrow the gap between the house and yourself. But you’re still at a slight disadvantage when using perfect basic strategy.
Enter hole carding: an advantage-play technique that involves spotting the dealer’s hole card. If you see their hole card, you can gain up to a 13% advantage.
Any dealer who consistently offers players a chance to see this is called a “flasher.” These dealers, through one mistake or another, allow players to gain a big advantage by flashing their hole card.
The best way to spot these dealer flaws is by sitting in the right seat and paying close attention to every hand.
Most players don’t pay attention to when the dealer peeks for blackjack or deals themselves the hole card. But by doing so, this gives you a tremendous advantage at a flasher’s table.
Spotting the dealer’s face-down card when they peek for a blackjack is called “first-basing” or “third-basing.” Spotting the hole card when it’s slid under the up-card is called “front loading.”
Many hole-carders sit at first base, which is the first seat to the dealer’s left. This gives you the best chance at seeing a right-handed dealer’s hole card.
The other popular hole-carding seat is third base, which is to the dealer’s immediate right. This is the best spot to see a left-handed dealer’s face-down card.
It also helps if you can gain a vantage point closer to the table felt. The more level your eyes are with the table, the better chance you have of seeing the hole card.
Shorter players have an advantage in this regard because they’re naturally closer to the table felt. Taller players often lean back to improve their vantage point.
Of course, the key is to do so in a subtle manner. Being obvious about leaning back or slouching draws attention to your hole-carding efforts.
Another thing that you need to be careful of is over-using your advantage. Sometimes you should ignore the info you gain when using basic strategy because some plays look too suspicious.
Here’s an example.
*Your first two cards total a hard 8
*The dealer’s up-card is a 10
*You see that the dealer’s hole card is 2
*The optimal play is to double down against the dealer’s 12
*But no regular player is going to make this decision because they’re not supposed to have this info
The last thing that you want to do is continue taking advantage of plays like this, especially when your dealer is a consistent flasher.
If the casino finds out that a dealer is consistently flashing cards and helping a player(s) win, one of two things will happen.
*1. The dealer will receive better training
*2. The dealer will be fired if flashing becomes a consistent problem
In either case, the work you put into finding a flasher goes out the window. And this is hardly worth taking advantage of a few suspicious plays that you should let go.
Players need to think long term and realize what kind of profits they can make by continuing to play at the dealer’s table. Avoid decisions that are too far outside the bounds of regular strategy.
It’s hard to find a consistent flasher. Casinos train dealers on how to deal without giving players a chance to see their hole card.
Nevertheless, some dealers either don’t pick up enough skills in training or become lackadaisical over time.
The best place to start when looking for flashers is casino-heavy cities like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, and Reno. This enables you to bounce from casino to casino within a single shift.
Odds are that you’re not going to find a flasher within your first few hunts. But once you do find one, note what shift they work and make it a priority to play at their table.Shuffle Tracking
In the 1960s and ‘70s, Las Vegas casinos began implementing shoe games. The idea was to hinder card counters by forcing them to count through multiple decks in each shoe.
Casinos thought that they solved their card counting problem with shoe blackjack tables. But card counters merely adjusted their strategy, and other techniques such as shuffle tracking were born as well.
Shuffle tracking refers to tracking specific cards, or a sequence of cards, through multiple shuffles. Shuffle trackers monitor where 10s and face cards (a.k.a. high cards) are throughout the coming rounds.
Much like card counting, the goal is to bet more when the shoe is abundant in high cards. When used properly, shuffle tracking is much more effective than counting.Blackjack Apprenticeship Playing Deviations
But this technique is also very difficult to use, because you must know an advanced strategy on top of card counting.
The basic idea behind shuffle tracking is that shuffles aren’t random, and you can track certain cards after a shuffle.
You might think, “Can’t dealers just shuffle more to make decks more random and stop shuffle trackers?” But many casinos don’t like their dealers wasting too much time with shuffles, because this slows the game and lowers profits.
Blackjack dealers commonly use a “zero shuffle,” where cards are separated into piles, with the shuffling only being done between the piles (i.e., the dealer grabs two piles and riffles them). This means that the ace of hearts, for example, would have a high chance of only being in one or two sections of the shuffled shoe.
Card counting comes in because you want keep track of the count in different discard sections. I’ll start this explanation by looking at the point values assigned in the Hi-Lo counting method.
*2 through 6 = +1
*7 through 9 = 0
*10 through ace = -1
You can use other card counting systems with shuffle tracking. But the Hi-Lo is a popular counting strategy that’s easy to use.
As you may know, high cards favor the player by improving their chances of getting a natural blackjack payout. This advantage comes from the fact that players get either a 3:2 or 6:5 bonus with a natural.
Meanwhile, low cards reduce the dealer’s chance of busting out while they try to reach a hard 17. Anything that increases the dealer’s odds of winning is bad for players.
The premise is to make higher bets when the shoe is rich in aces and 10-value cards (i.e., positive count) and bet the table minimum when the shoe contains more low cards (i.e., negative count).
The overall positive or negative count is referred to as a “running count.” But Hi-Lo system users convert this into a “true count,” which accounts for the number of unplayed decks in the shoe.
Here’s an example:
*Your running count is +8
*There are 4 decks remaining
*8/4 = +2 true count
Card counting and shuffle tracking come together when players have a good idea of what card values are left in the shoe based on their count. If they can take this a step further by visually tracking high cards and finding them bunched together, they gain an even greater advantage.
One big benefit of shuffle tracking is that it’s harder to spot than card counting.
Sure, you’re still increasing bets during favorable situations. But your increased bets come in a shorter span once 10-value cards and aces emerge in clumps.
Another advantage is that you can gain up to a 50% advantage with perfect shuffle tracking.
No player will have this edge all of the time. But an expert shuffle tracker may gain between a 10% and 30% long-term edge, depending upon the dealer and shuffling style they’re using.
The downside is that shuffle tracking is extremely difficult to pull off. You not only need to keep a good count, but also follow the deck with your eyes and understand how high cards will disperse after shuffles.
Be prepared to practice for quite some time in order to become an expert shuffle tracker. Even then, you need to be good enough to pull this off with a high degree of certainty.
In other words, some players fool themselves into thinking that they’re gaining an edge, when they’re really not doing anything special.
Another drawback is that not every casino trains their blackjack dealers in a shuffle that can be exploited. Some casinos use a 2-pass shuffle, where they go through two rounds of riffling and restacking.
2-pass shuffles make it harder to track cards during a shuffle. Ideally, you want a one-pass shuffle to cut down on the randomness of the shoe.
One more point worth making is that you can’t shuffle track with a continuous shuffling machine (CSM). That said, look for hand-shuffled shoes with one-pass shuffles.Ace Sequencing
Ace sequencing is a different type of card tracking, where you try to remember what cards are on top of the ace in the discard pile. You then make larger bets when you see these cards come out in hopes of being dealt an ace.
Like shuffle tracking, ace sequencing is a difficult pursuit. The best ace trackers can remember up to a dozen card sequences in each shoe, thus greatly improving their chances of catching aces.
If you know that you’re likely to be dealt an ace, you can gain up to a 50% advantage on the house. When you’re dealt an ace, you have a 31% chance of getting a 10-value card
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